Scenario Planning

SLIM's theory-based curriculum has been berated by a number of people, and their online classes have gotten a lot of guff as well, but one of the best classes I took was an online management course on scenario planning. The basic concept is that you gather information, look at it, and come up with a best case, worst case, and middle of the road scenario. Then, you undertake activities that fit into all three scenarios. That way, everything you do will be "right," regardless of what actually happens--which is of course completely unpredictable.

I'm elbow-deep in the future of libraries right now, what with journal club (x2), the changes happening at our insitution, and the general buzz in libraryland, so I decided to do a little scenario scripting as I begin to make recommendations for the future of digital resources here.

Here are some of my basic assumptions, and I'll post my first completed scenario in a minute.

1. Patron preference for digital over print will continue to increase
2. More materials will be freely available online although considerable content will still be within paid access “walled gardens”
3. Prices for print and paid-access “walled gardens” will continue to increase at a rate faster than inflation
4. Budgets will increase at a rate less than that of inflation causing ongoing shortfalls each year
5. Patrons are going to be increasingly less willing to come to the library for materials
6. Patrons are going to be increasingly less willing to wait or pay for ILL
7. Patrons are going to be increasingly less willing to learn separate database interfaces
8. As more information becomes available, the idea of “good enough” information will completely overtake the search for “the best” or “all available” information